It’s opening day! 2011 MLB Predictions
April 1, 2011
I do not feel Winter is truly over until opening day arrives, and that day is today! Baseball is a sport that I truly cannot get enough of, and it is always a challenge to predict what is going to happen in a given year. I give it my best shot on this blog every year, so feel free to comment if you disagree. I do not try to project final records, only where each team will finish in the division and what may happen in the playoffs, plus a few notes on my rationale.
* = Playoff Picks have asterisks
AL East:
1) * Boston Red Sox – this is the “boring” and “trendy” pick to win the East. Seriously thought, who else has such balance in the lineup, rotation and bullpen other than Boston? I love the additions of Crawford and Gonzalez to the lineup and expect great things. The rotation underperformed last year and I feel like Beckett and Lackey will rebound nicely.
2) Baltimore Orioles – this is my “shocker special” pick. I am picking the O’s to finally emerge this year with the continued development of talented players like Brian Matusz, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters surrounded by the addition of at least 3 players who can jack 30 HRs: Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, and Derrek Lee. They will win a lot of games by the score of 7-6 and 10-9, just because the lineup is that good. Uehara is an underrated closer if given the opportunity.
3) New York Yankees – I am shocked at how unproven and ugly the rotation is behind C.C. Sabathia. Hughes is young, Burnett is a bust, and Nova and Garcia are going to have a lot of pressure on them. The lineup is rock solid, but I don’t get good vibes from this team in a tough division. Of course by midseason, they might trade for some help and make me look like a fool. That usually happens every season.
4) Tampa Bay – the team lost too many key pieces and only added some spare parts while the next wave of player development takes place. I am watching Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings closely this year. Price is, in my opinion, the best pitcher in the AL East right now.
5) Toronto Blue Jays – I truly feel bad that this team is slotted in the East. In the NL, they might contend for the division title in any of the divisions, but buried in the East, I am not buying that they have done much to improve. Expect a lot of HRs and starters who have a high K/9 ratio, but lack consistency.
AL Central:
1) * Chicago White Sox – Yes, I am a White Sox fan and I have them picked to finish 1st, but I am not crazy to expect big things from this team. I will admit that a lot depends on Jake Peavy and Matt Thornton this year. The lineup has balance and the rotation is solid from #1 -#5. Adam Dunn is going to make a lot of Sox fans forget about Jim Thome this year. This team is built to win now, and I believe Ozzie will impart this urgency into the team.
2) * Minnesota Twins – The Twins are the scrappiest team in MLB. They manufacture runs and play aggressively. I love the offense’s ability to manufacture runs, but I am not sold on their rotation after Liriano. As usual, I expect them to have a great year and compete for the Central division crown with the White Sox. I am also predicting another early exit in the playoffs.
3) Detroit Tigers – The Tigers are a very balanced team, but are aging (Inge, Guillen, Ordonez) and underwhelming (Peralta, Rhymes) in many areas. A lot depends on Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to drive the offense. The team will be competitive, but I do not see them challenging the Twins and Sox in the Central this year.
4) Kansas City Royals – The Royals will be a good team…in 2013. It always seems like they are a few pieces away from contending. Pop quiz….name a Royals starting pitcher? The team should be energetic and exciting to watch this year, but needs to start to surround these position players with the right arms. If they had held onto Grienke, I would be a lot more optimistic about their chances.
5) Cleveland Indians – I expect Cleveland to be the worst team in baseball this year. It is understandable why they ranked last in MLB in attendance last year. All that I can say is that this will be another developmental year for Santana and that I am looking forward to seeing if Sizemore can return healthy.
AL West:
1) * Texas Rangers – There should be an encore performance after the team had its best season ever. I love the addition of Beltre in this ballpark and I think that Kinsler will remain relatively healthy this year. The rotation is shaky, but Neftali Feliz will bail them out of a lot of jams. If they had held on to Cliff Lee, I would write them down as a threat for a World Series appearance, but I think they will fall just shy of that mark while winning the west.
2) Los Angeles Angels – The team has solved the rotation problems from 2010. Unfortunately, I do not see the lineup manufacturing runs at the same clip as Angels teams in the past. Still, excellence is the standard for this team and they have a great owner/manager combo who are willing to get things done. I could easily see them rise up to win the West and expect a close race with Texas.
3) Oakland A’s – This team is building something special with a rotation featuring Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden. I honestly feel like this is one of the top 5 groups in baseball. The team made several attempts to shore up the offensive holes, but an aging Matsui and washed up Willingham are not going to help. It looks like the team will be mediocre until the starters get adequate run support.
4) Seattle Mariners – What can I say about this team? They began last year with high expectations and fell flat. I don’t see much improvement here; King Felix is a lock to contend for the AL Cy Young again, but everyone else on staff is a question mark. The team will not be terrible pitching, but will have trouble in both the bullpen and offense. If they win 70 games, I will be surprised.
NL East:
1) * Philadelphia Phillies – Utley’s injury makes Philadelphia more interesting. Everyone knows about Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels; “The Four Aces” could be the best rotation in history. There are weaknesses in the Bullpen and especially the lineup which prevent me from picking them as the hands down favorites. They should win the East, but in a short playoff series anything can happen.
2) Florida Marlins – Perhaps I am too high on the Marlins, but I like their rotation to be competitive with the best in all of baseball. This team has a habit of doing great things when least expected to contend. It is about time for them to shock the world again.
3) Atlanta Braves – It is really hard for me to pick them 3rd in the division when I like so much about this team. They could easily make the playoffs and do some damage. Kimbrel is going to save 30 games this year, Heyward will become a star and McLouth will bounce back. Even without Cox, the Braves are dangerous.
4) Washington Nationals – This team seems to be in transition until 2012 when Strasburg returns and Harper might be able to join the team. The middle of the order combo of Zimmerman, Werth, and LaRoche will be really good. I am investing heavily on Drew Storen for my fantasy baseball teams; he is a genuine nice guy with elite closer potential.
5) New York Mets – Yuck. Too many injuries and questions marks for me to predict any improvement for this team. The management has managed to spend more money to get less production than I thought was possible.
NL Central:
1) * Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers got Marcum and Grienke in the offseason and gave me no choice but to rank them as the top team in the Central. They have a rare balance that is hard to find; great offense, great rotation and bullpen. The team can hang with anyone, but Axford must build upon last season’s progress for the Brewers to be consistent.
2) St. Louis Cardinals - The Adam Wainwright injury is the most painful blow to any team in MLB. With him, the Cardinals are serious contenders for the World Series. Without him, Kyle McClellan is the latest Duncan project who must deliver. Despite all of this, the Cardinals are a gritty team and will go toe to toe with anyone; the biggest concern will be the bullpen and the Pujols contract as the season progresses.
3) Chicago Cubs – I could see the Cubs winning this division or finishing as low as 5th place, so I decided to split the difference and predict 3rd. Every single player in the lineup has questions and baggage, especially Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. Starlin Castro should emerge as a household name after this season. The Cubs mortgaged their future to obtain Garza, but I believe he will be mediocre in Wrigley. If Zambrano keeps his head on straight (as he did during the last 2 months of 2010), they just might have an ace.
4) Cincinnati Reds – I am probably ranking these guys too low; but I am critical of Dusty Baker as a manager. When the going gets tough, his teams tend to collapse. Cincy has such a young team that I can easily see this happening. The pitching staff has no legit aces, and Rolen is going to be injured at some point this season. Votto, Bruce and Chapman should still get better, so this decline may only be temporary.
5) Houston Astros – Despite a low projection, hope springs eternal in Houston. The team has got the makings of a new powerhouse lineup with Bourn, Pence, Johnson and Wallace. Happ and Norris are underrated pitchers, and will remind teams why throughout the season.
6) Pittsburgh Pirates – When will the next winning season happen in Pittsburgh? They have a great young lineup, but the rotation rivals Cleveland and Kansas City in anonymity. This will be the undoing of the team in 2011.
NL West:
1) * Colorado Rockies – It is an odd numbered year, so therefore, the Rockies must go to the playoffs! On a serious note, I make this projection more on the strength of CarGo, Tulo and Ubaldo than anything else. Jimenez threw a no-hitter right before my wedding day, so I am always rooting for him. The team should be aggressive enough to battle for a playoff spot and potentially go on a Giant like run.
2) * San Francisco Giants – Has there ever been a more unlikely World Series Winner than the San Francisco Giants in 2010? The lineup was a mix of rookies, replacement players and rejects; somehow they pulled it together. This team illustrates why starting pitching is so valuable and I have them slotted to return to the post season on this strength. They also are a threat to repeat with the rotation in tact from last year.
3) Los Angeles Dodgers – There is a dark cloud hanging over this team with the McCourt divorce. I think the uncertainty was evident in the lackluster offseason, where it was clear that management did not have the ability to make a splash. Largely the same team returns, and I expect the same results; mediocrity.
4) Arizona Diamondbacks – I was tempted to pick the Padres here, but I get a feeling that this is the year that Arizona’s young talent steps up and delivers. Daniel Hudson is a legit ace, and the White Sox got fleeced when they traded him for Edwin Jackson. The team will go as far as Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Miguel Montero take them.
5) San Diego Padres – Mat Latos has a tattoo on his throwing arm that reads “Love me or hate me” . This is pretty ironic because Latos is now the most talented player on a roster full of little known players. The team nearly made the playoffs after an unlikely campaign, but the lineup is too thin for me to believe that they can do it again. Pitching will not be a problem in Petco, but the team should compete with the Mariners for the fewest runs scored.
Playoff Results:
AL Playoffs:
1st Rd: Boston over Minnesota
Chicago over Texas
2nd Rd: Boston over Chicago
NL Playoffs:
1st Rd: Philadelphia over Colorado
Milwaukee over San Francisco
2nd Rd: Milwaukee over Philadelphia
World Series: Red Sox defeat Brewers in 7 Games
